Week 18 is going to be a wild one.
Some teams are highly motivated while others aren't, adding complexity when picking player props for Sunday. I have chosen today's selections based on a combination of statistical data, player motivation, value and my gut impulses.
Before placing your wagers, be sure to double-check the list of teams that will be highly motivated and also check in on individual player contract incentives. More markets will populate as we get more information closer to game time, and those lists can help you make informed choices.
Here are the early values I am locking in for Sunday:
Justin Fields over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+175)
Justin Fields over 52.5 rushing yards (-120)
I understand if you want to fade me on this one, but at least hear me out: Yes, the Green Bay Packers have to win this one and yes, the Packers are at home. But the Chicago Bears could have a lot of fun playing spoiler — and still not lose the No. 1 overall draft pick. Not only that, but Fields will be playing for his future. I'm willing to bet on Fields to exceed expectations this week. After all, the Packers allowed two passing touchdowns to Bryce Young in Week 16, and Fields has one of the most talented receivers in the league in DJ Moore.
If you want to fade the passing TD prop, consider Fields's rushing prop. The Packers have allowed the third-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season, while Fields has been averaging 65.5 rushing yards per game since returning from injury in Week 11.
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Derek Carr over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+105)
This is the third time we have played a plus-money prop for Carr to throw a pair of touchdowns, and we are looking for the hat trick after cashing the first two! The payout isn't quite as nice this time, so the sportsbooks might be starting to figure it out… luckily for us, it's Week 18.
Carr has thrown for two or more touchdowns in each of the last four games, and he's done it in six of the last nine, too. The New Orleans Saints will be highly motivated to win this game with the NFC South title on the line, and though the matchup would suggest we should bet the under, we are betting on the fact that the Saints like to score through the air. The Saints are averaging exactly 1.5 passing touchdowns per game this season but only 0.7 rushing touchdowns per game. Jamaal Williams has yet to score a single TD, while Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill have combined for just nine all season.
If you want to play the other side of this prop, I should mention that the Falcons held Carr to no touchdowns in Week 12 after he returned from his concussion and shoulder injuries. I can't bet on anything involving Arthur Smith, though, so I'm pushing the chips all in on a big day for Carr and New Orleans.
Jordan Love under 246.5 passing yards (-115)
I'm taking the under for Love, because I think the Bears will put up a fight. Love has been very good lately, but his pass-catching options are still limited, and he's gone under the number in 10 of 16 games played this season — including in Week 1 vs. the Bears. Since then, the Bears’ pass defense has improved, and they have allowed only 222 passing yards per game across the last seven. Throw in the fact that I think the Bears could slow down the clock with their run game vs. the Packers and Love goes just under this mark.
Kyler Murray over 31.5 rushing yards (-115)
Only the Detroit Lions have allowed more rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season than the Seattle Seahawks, who have allowed an average of 4.98 yards per carry on 81 attempts (fifth-most). If you throw out the one game vs. the Los Angeles Rams, where he only had one attempt, Murray is averaging 41.8 rushing yards and 7.6 carries per game. Murray is still playing for his future, and I'll bet he uses his legs to make an impact to help spoil a postseason bid for the division-rival Seahawks.
Brandin Cooks over 38.5 receiving yards (-120)
Brandin Cooks over 3.5 catches (+130)
Not only have the Washington Commanders allowed the most yards to opposing wideouts this season, Brandin Cooks has been surging in the second half of the season. He has five touchdowns since Week 8, and he's averaging 57 receiving yards per game since then as well. He had 72 yards and a touchdown in the game vs. the Commanders in Week 12, and I'll bet Dak Prescott finds the speedy, sure-handed receiver for at least 39 on Sunday. He's also been averaging 3.8 catches per game since Week 8, so I'll take a shot on the plus-money catch prop, too.
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