There’s something really odd about basing predictions for the Premier League title race on how a team does in an FA Cup game. But then again, not many cup semi-finals pit the two protagonists at the top of the table against each other in a straight shootout.
And so, on the back of Chelsea’s victory over Tottenham Hotspur at Wembley on Saturday evening, Chelsea have become even bigger favourites to lift the trophy come the end of the season. Presumably on the basis that they have now dealt Tottenham a huge psychological blow and steadied their own ship at exactly the moment at which it looked to be wavering.
And yet, nothing’s really changed in the Premier League title race as far as both teams are concerned. That Spurs now look weaker than Chelsea is a matter of perception rather than substance – perhaps much in the same way that Spurs were perceived to have been much the better side at Wembley, even in defeat. It’s all academic, and whatever was true, materially, before the weekend’s fixtures is still true now.
But that doesn’t make any better reading for Tottenham.
Before the FA Cup semi-final, there was some hope that momentum would be created by victory. That Chelsea would start feeling sorry for themselves and lose enough points to leave the door open for Spurs, and that Mauricio Pochettino’s side, emboldened by their luck, would go on to win a sensational double, coming from behind to lift the trophy after 14 victories on the bounce. But that was unlikely ever to be the case. The fact always remained that in order to win the title, Spurs needed not just to beat the record for most consecutive wins in the Premier League, but to do it with the kind of run-in which would lead many to decide they’d throw away the title if the positions were reversed.
First up this is a trip to Crystal Palace, a side whose squad doesn’t immediately shout relegation battle, and who have already disposed of Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool over the last few weeks. They have risen from the depths like a monster from a 1950s horror film, looking more like a team on the verge of Europa League qualification than relegation to the Championship.
It’s not an easy game by anyone’s standards, and we knew that even before the FA Cup game. But what comes next only gets harder. If Tottenham are to win the title, they’ll have to beat Palace, but also then beat Arsenal at home and West Ham United away. And even if Palace away isn’t the kind of London derby that Spurs fans look for the second the fixture list is announced, Arsenal and West Ham games are. Both teams hate Spurs, and both teams will relish putting the boot into a Tottenham title challenge. If they win those three local derbies in a row, we’ll have to start to believe.
And yet, even if they do, it doesn’t get a whole lot easier from there. After a run like that, you want to be able to puff out your cheeks and slump into your favourite armchair, but the fixture schedulers didn’t really allow Spurs that luxury: Manchester United at home (possibly the last ever Premier League game at the current incarnation of White Hart Lane) is then followed by two tough away trips to finish the season, one to Leicester (who haven’t lost at home since February 5th) and Hull City (whose last home defeat came on December 26th).
It makes you wonder whether there really is a title race at all.
Spurs are probably the best team in the country. They have lost the fewest games, conceded the fewest goals and have the best goal difference. They have scored more goals than Chelsea have, conceded fewer and played better football over the course of the last six months.
And so if any team in England can win those six remaining fixtures in such difficult circumstances, it’s Tottenham. But even if the FA Cup, and the associated heartbreak, isn’t what makes winning the title suddenly looks beyond them, their fixture list does. In the end, they’ve probably left themselves with just too much to do.
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