The Road to Super Bowl 59 got off to a solid start in the Wild-Card Round. I managed to go 6-6 for +0.67 units thanks to cashing in on a T.J. Hockenson touchdown bet on Monday night.
We are now down to four games in the divisional round which means I have eight bets locked in, one wager on a side and one bet on a player prop for each game. Let's see if we can build off Wild-Card Weekend and keep the momentum going in the divisional round.
NFL Divisional Round Best Bets for Every GameTexans vs. Chiefs Prediction
I'm going for a couple of home runs in the first game of the divisional round. I have been anti-Chiefs all season, so it's time to put my money where my mouth is. The Chiefs aren't nearly as good as their record is, and now have been overvalued by the betting market. Let's take a look at where they rank in a few key areas heading into this week:
Net Yards per Play: 20th (-0.2)EPA per Play: 9thOpponent EPA per Play: 15thSuccess rate: 8thOpponent Success rate: 13thRed Zone TD%: 22ndOpponent Red Zone TD%: 8thThird Down Conversion%: 3rdOpponent Third Down Conversion%: 27th
Does that look like that makeup of a team that should be this big of a favorite in the divisional round? You're only defense of the Chiefs at this point is that they're the back-to-back defending Super Bowl champions, but if you look at this season in a vacuum, they are ripe to be upset.
The Chiefs' biggest strength is their third down offense. Patrick Mahomes thrives on third down and their offense is third in the NFL in the area. If the Texans can pull off their upset, it'll be because of their third down defense which ranks third in the NFL, keeping teams to converting third downs at a rate of just 35.5%. They're also fourth in opponent EPA on third down and third in opponent third down success rate.
Call me crazy, but I'll take the Texans to pull off the upset.
Texans vs. Chiefs Player Prop
If you want a long shot touchdown scorer for the divisional round, look no further than Dalton Shultz of the Texans.
The Chiefs struggled to defend tight ends all season. They finished the regular season tied for allowing the second most receptions to the position at 106 while also allowing the most receiving yards at 1,191. In the regular season meeting game between these two teams, Schultz scored a touchdown while racking up five receptions for 45 yards. I can't pass this bet up at north of 4-1 odds.
Commanders vs. Lions Prediction
I'm not going to overthink this game. Give me the OVER and let's just sit back and root for points in this NFC showdown.
You don't need me to tell you these are two of the most elite offenses in the NFL. They rank third and fourth in EPA per play, first and fifth in success rate, and first and fifth in points per game. The Lions can attack defenses both on the ground and through the air while the Commanders can torch teams through the air with their electric rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels.
Defensively, I have a lot of questions for both teams. The Lions are still dealing with plenty of injuries, especially their secondary, and the Commanders have had holes on that side of the football all season. All signs possible point to this being a high-scoring affair.
Commanders vs. Lions Player Prop
The Detroit Lions have struggled to stop opposing quarterbacks from racking up rush yards against them this season. They have allowed the fourth most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks at 454.
Jayden Daniels averaged 52.4 rushing yards per game in the regular season so we only need him to get a few more yards than his season average to cash this bet. It's worth noting that while Daniels only had 36 yards on the ground against the Bucs, he did rack up 13 attempts which shows me he'll continue to take off with his legs throughout the postseason.
Rams vs. Eagles Prediction
The Rams beating the Vikings was a case of Los Angeles taking on a regressing team playing their worst football of the season moreso than a case of the Rams catching fire. I'm still not sold on this Rams team that ranks 19th in Net Yards per Play, 15th in EPA per Play, and 23rd in opponent EPA per Play.
Meanwhile, the Eagles rank fourth, sixth, and third in those categories.
It's also worth noting that Saquon Barkely racked up a blistering 255 yards on the ground against the Rams when these two teams met in the regular season and I've seen no indication that Los Angeles has solved that issue. Philadelphia is too complete a team for the Rams to deal with.
Rams vs. Eagles Player Prop
Much like the Chiefs, the Rams have also struggled defending tied ends this season. They're tied with the Chiefs for giving up the second most receptions to the position in the regular season at 106. They also allowed the Vikings tight end, T.J. Hockenson, to rack up five receptions against them on Monday night.
Dallas Goedert has become more involved in the Eagles' offense in the past handful of weeks, including grabbing 4+ receptions in four of his last five games. With a great matchup ahead of him, I expect him to be involved in their plan once again.
Ravens vs. Bills Prediction
I still believe the Baltimore Ravens are the best team in the NFL so I'm not going to sway away from them just yet. They lead the NFL in Net Yards per Play this season at +1.6, which is 0.6 better than the next best team and +1.1 better than the Bills.
The difference in this game is going to come on the defensive side of the football. Since Week 10, the Ravens defense ranks third in opponent EPA per Play and second in opponent Success Rate. In the same time frame, the Bills defense ranks 32nd and 31st in those two respective stats, which should be extremely concerning for Buffalo fans.
A strong home field advantage is the biggest thing working in favor of the Bills, but that's not enough to convince me to bet on the team with the far inferior defense.
Ravens vs. Bills Player Prop
Betting on an opposing receiver to haul in a long reception against the Ravens has been one of my favorite bets to place on a weekly basis. Baltimore has allowed 58 receptions of 20+ yards this season, the third most in the NFL. Meanwhile, Keon Coleman has recorded a reception of 17+ yards in 10 of his 13 games this season.
In the regular season meeting between these two teams, Coleman brought in a reception of 24 yards. Another catch like that and we'll cash this bet.
