The 2024 NFL season is now five games old, and it's a good time to take stock of the league landscape. A month and change of football is a large enough body of work to draw definitive conclusions in some ways—like the Kansas City Chiefs being fine as long as they have Patrick Mahomes, or the New England Patriots being one of the worst teams in the NFL.
There's still plenty of football to be played and a lot can change, but we're now far enough along that we have a general idea of who these teams are.
To help further identify the contenders, bottom-feeders and everyone in between, it's useful to look at advanced statistics. No matter where you fall on the analytics spectrum, it's undeniable they are a useful and sometimes fun way to take a different angle on how teams are performing. They help capture the full picture in ways a simple win-loss record cannot.
To that end, we wondered: what would the NFL standings look like if they were ranked by Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, or DVOA?
What is DVOA and why does it matter?
For those who have yet to be introduced, DVOA is a metric initially hosted on Football Outsiders that aims to identify how much better or worse a team performs relative to league average. The stat now resides on FTN Fantasy, and is explained thusly:
"DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10% better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20% worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative. Every year is normalized so the average for that year is 0%."
In essence, DVOA is a catch-all statistic that measures how far above or below average an NFL team performs in the three stages of the game. For example, the Vikings are in first place in terms of total DVOA. The stat estimates Minnesota is performing over 40% better than the average team in 2024. The Cleveland Browns, on the other hand, are performing nearly 50% than the average NFL team this year.
More information about how exactly it is calculated can be found on the FTN Fantasy website.
Now that you've got a handle on what the stat means, let's put it to use. How would the current NFL standings shake out if they were ordered by total DVOA instead of record?
NFL standings ordered by total DVOA
No.
TEAM
DVOA
1
Minnesota Vikings
41%
2
Detroit Lions
34.1%
3
Baltimore Ravens
33%
4
Kansas City Chiefs
22.8%
5
San Francisco 49ers
21.8%
6
Houston Texans
21.3%
7
Buffalo Bills
17.5%
8
Green Bay Packers
15.7%
9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14.8%
10
Atlanta Falcons
13.5%
11
New Orleans Saints
10.9%
12
Washington Commanders
9.9%
13
Cincinnati Bengals
8.9%
14
Seattle Seahawks
8.8%
15
Los Angeles Chargers
6.3%
16
Pittsburgh Steelers
3.7%
17
Chicago Bears
3.2%
18
Denver Broncos
1.6%
19
Indianapolis Colts
1.3%
20
New York Jets
-4.5%
21
Philadephia Eagles
-6.9%
22
Arizona Cardinals
-8%
23
New York Giants
-10.1%
24
Dallas Cowboys
-12.2%
25
Los Angeles Rams
-13.2%
26
Tennessee Titans
-17.5%
27
Jacksonville Jaguars
-27.3%
28
Las Vegas Raiders
-21.3%
29
New England Patriots
-26.5%
30
Carolina Panthers
-38.9%
31
Miami Dolphins
-40.6%
32
Cleveland Browns
-45.5%
NFL Division Standings by Total DVOAAFC East
No.
TEAM
TOTAL DVOA
1
Buffalo Bills
21.3%
2
New York Jets
-4.5%
3
New England Patriots
-26.5%
4
Miami Dolphins
-40.6%
AFC West
No.
TEAM
TOTAL DVOA
1
Kansas City Chiefs
22.8%
2
Los Angeles Chargers
6.3%
3
Denver Broncos
1.6%
4
Las Vegas Raiders
-31.9%
AFC South
No.
TEAM
TOTAL DVOA
1
Houston Texans
21.3%
2
Indianapolis Colts
1.3%
3
Tennessee Titans
-17.5%
4
Jacksonville Jaguars
-27.3%
AFC North
No.
TEAM
TOTAL DVOA
1
Baltimore Ravens
33%
2
Cincinnati Bengals
8.9%
3
Pittsburgh Steelers
3.7%
4
Cleveland Browns
-45.5%
NFC East
No.
TEAM
TOTAL DVOA
1
Washington Commanders
9.9%
2
Philadelphia Eagles
-6.9%
3
New York Giants
-10.1%
4
Dallas Cowboys
-12.2%
NFC West
No.
TEAM
TOTAL DVOA
1
San Francisco 49ers
21.8%
2
Seattle Seahawks
8.8%
3
Arizona Cardinals
-8%
4
Los Angeles Rams
-13.2%
NFC South
No.
TEAM
TOTAL DVOA
1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14.8%
2
Atlanta Falcons
13.5%
3
New Orleans Saints
10.9%
4
Carolina Panthers
-38.9%
NFC North
No.
TEAM
TOTAL DVOA
1
Minnesota Vikings
41%
2
Detroit Lions
34.1%
3
Green Bay Packers
15.7%
4
Chicago Bears
3.2%
Takeaways
This new iteration of standings won't tell us who's going to the Super Bowl, but it does provide an interesting look at who's good and who's bad around the league.
It is safe to say the NFC North is as good as advertised. The Vikings are still head and shoulders above the pack in terms of overall play and the Lions reminded everyone why they were pegged as a contender by destroying the Cowboys and rocketing up their DVOA. All in all, the division boasts four teams with positive DVOA, something no other division can say.
It will come as somewhat irritating to AFC West fans outside of Missouri that the Kansas City Chiefs are still the fourth-best team in the league by DVOA despite coming across as worse than last year's Super Bowl squad. The Patrick Mahomes effect.
And the Browns … man, they are bad beyond words. The teams in their general vicinity on the DVOA chart have reasons for being that low. The Dolphins are playing backup quarterbacks. The Panthers are generally a disaster. Cleveland was supposed to compete in the AFC North this season and instead are the worst team in football by a significant margin.
A fun, different way to look at the standings.
