The College Football season rolls on and our insiders are getting hot.
Both Pat Forde and Reed Wallach are coming off strong weeks as each man races to pick 40 correct against the spread picks this season. Pat went 3-2 last week while Reed went 4-1 and could have been 5-0 if not for a collapse from Arkansas.
Who has overachieved and underachieved thus far, setting up interesting betting markets for Week 3? What about some teams that may have an eye on conference play, leading to a prime spot to fade them against the spread?
It's the Week 3 edition of First to Forde.
Pat Forde’s Picks Against the SpreadPat’s Wins: 3Oregon vs. Oregon State Prediction and Pick
Pick: Oregon State +16.5
This is a Super Bowl-sized game for the Beavers, who have been left to die in realignment largely because of the actions of the Ducks. To have a vulnerable Oregon team – the offensive line is a mess – coming into Reser Stadium is all the opportunity Oregon State could ask for. This game will be close.
West Virginia vs. Pitt Prediction and Pick
Pick: Pitt +2.5
I think the Panthers found themselves in a do-or-die situation at Cincinnati last week, scoring on their final four possessions to pull out a victory. Eli Holstein showed some hero traits in that comeback. The Mountaineers have been a little loose with the football so far this season, a minus-3 in turnover margin, and lack of ball security is the easiest way to lose a close game.
Purdue vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Pick
Pick: Purdue +10.5
Yes, I expect the Fighting Irish to come back breathing fire after the embarrassment against Northern Illinois. But I still don’t think this is a very good offensive team, and Purdue has had two weeks to get ready for a huge opportunity, and stuff tends to happen in Ross-Ade Stadium. The Boilermakers can cover the number.
Tulane vs. Oklahoma Prediction and Pick
Pick: Tulane +14
The Green Wave had Kansas State on the ropes last week and couldn’t finish the deal. The Sooners were fortunate to win against Houston. Tulane is good enough – and Oklahoma is shaky enough – to keep this close.
Toledo vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Pick
Pick: Toledo +11.5
I’m not saying #MACtion is going to pull another shocker. But I am saying the line is too big. The Rockets are the best overall program in the MAC, and the Bulldogs are not world-beaters. This should be a single-digit margin of victory.
Reed Wallach’s Picks Against the SpreadReed’s Wins: 5Texas State vs. Arizona State Prediction and Pick
Pick: Texas State +1.5
Texas State has been prone to giving up explosive plays. Last season it was bottom 10 in explosive rush and pass rate, but that’s by design as the team is an ultra-aggressive unit that ranked second in tackles for loss. The team has size in the trenches that can test the Sun Devils' untested offensive line that may be improved, but just how much?
If the Sun Devils can’t establish the ground game with RB Cameron Skattebo, the game will fall on Sam Leavitt’s arm, which I’m interested to see. He struggled in his first look at a Power Five defense, completing only 50% of his passes against Mississippi State.
It’s worth noting he is a capable rusher, but I believe the Bobcats defense can give him issues. In a small sample size over the last two seasons (including at Michigan State in 2023), Leavitt is 5-for-15 under pressure.
Meanwhile, the Kinne-led Texas State offense is always going to hum. This is one of the most potent offenses in college football from a scheme perspective and just hung 49 on UTSA, going up 35-5 at halftime. The ASU secondary allowed Blake Shapen and the Bulldogs to pass for about nine yards per dropback.
If there are going to be vertical opportunities for McCloud and co., Texas State is going to out-pace its Power Four opponent.
UConn vs. Duke Prediction and Pick
Pick: UConn +17
I’m happy to fade the Blue Devils at a big number, even with the Huskies.
Duke couldn’t pull away from FCS Elon, and needed a late score and overtime to defeat Northwestern on the road.
The Blue Devils are running an air-raid type offense with transfer quarterback Maalik Murphy dropping back about 40 times per game, but the results are mixed thus far. The team is averaging about five yards per play (105th) and has the fifth-worst EPA/Rush mark this season.
I can’t trust Duke to win with margin just yet despite a sturdy defense.
Give me UConn to keep the scoreline respectable.
Tulane vs. Oklahoma Prediction and Pick
Pick: Tulane +14
Oklahoma has serious issues. The Sooners used six turnovers to build up a 51-3 scoreline and had a post-game win expectancy of less than 20% against Houston.
The team is averaging less than five yards per play and has 11 tackles for loss already. Now it welcomes a frisky Tulane team that nearly took down Kansas State at home.
Are we sure Oklahoma can get margin against a Tulane defense that generated five tackles for loss against a sturdy Kansas State offense with a run-first quarterback that has some questionable passing accuracy? Sounds a lot like Jackson Arnold at the moment.
Keep an eye on Darian Mensah and his big arm. He may be the better quarterback for a second straight week against highly touted first-year starters.
OU has Tennessee on deck, and I don’t think the team is good enough right now to win with margin against Tulane.
Nevada vs. Minnesota Prediction and Pick
Pick: Nevada +17
Nevada is…good!
Sure, the team is 1-2, but the Wolf Pack took SMU to the wire and had a post-game win expectancy north of 90% against Georgia Southern.
The offense has improved and is doing a good job of scheming up explosive passes (23rd in the country thus far). The defense has done a good job of getting in the backfield, averaging more than five tackles for loss this season.
Minnesota’s offense isn’t fixed just yet, even with star RB Darius Taylor back. This is a unit that struggles to find explosive plays and moves at a methodical tempo. This game may feature few possessions, which will limit the Gophers' ability to get margin.
With Iowa on deck, look for Nevada to keep the scoreline respectable yet again as the market continues to discount the Wolf Pack under first-year head coach Jeff Choate.
Indiana vs. UCLA Prediction and Pick
Pick: Indiana -2.5
The Hoosiers were a team I pegged in the preseason as a play-on team, and the team has looked the part thus far. Meanwhile, UCLA was expected to go through some growing pains with a ton of production leaving the defense and a new coaching staff.
While the Bruins only played one game, at Hawaii, the team struggled to hold up against a much softer defensive front than the one Indiana has compiled under first-year head coach Curt Cignetti.
The Bruins got a BYE week ahead of this game, but I’m not sure this team is ready to compete in Big Ten play, allowing six tackles for loss to the Rainbow Warriors and tossing two interceptions.
The Hoosiers have started strong, and I like the team to win out west in its Big Ten opener, which should have negligible home field for the rebuilding Bruins.
