Who will see their postseason hopes crushed in Week 13?
With only two weeks left of play, the pressure is on for respective conference title contenders and College Football Playoff hopefuls to keep pace with the competition. For teams like Indiana and Ohio State, this weekend's matchup serves as a pseudo-postseason game while Big 12 teams like Colorado and Arizona State are trying to secure spots in the conference title game.
Here’s my pick for the winner of each game with the attached moneyline.
Season Record: 135-54
College Football Straight Up Picks for Week 13Indiana vs. Ohio State Prediction and Pick
Pick: Ohio State (-520)
Wake Forest vs. Miami Prediction and Pick
Pick: Miami (-4000)
Ole Miss vs. Florida Prediction and Pick
Pick: Ole Miss (-360)
SMU vs. Virginia Prediction and Pick
Pick: SMU (-335)
Massachusetts vs. Georgia Prediction and Pick
Pick: Georgia (N/A)
UTEP vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick
Pick: Tennessee (N/A)
Kentucky vs. Texas Prediction and Pick
Pick: Texas (-2100)
Penn State vs. Minnesota Prediction and Pick
Pick: Penn State (-520)
BYU vs. Arizona State Prediction and Pick
Pick: Arizona State (-144)
Colorado vs. Kansas Prediction and Pick
Pick: Colorado (-140)
While there is rightful interest in the underdog Kansas, who is playing its best ball and spoiling Big 12 title contenders seasons seemingly every week now, I believe that this matchup doesn’t suit the Jayhawks very well.
Kansas has been able to rattle off wins in three of the last four due to its ability to run the ball well and shut down the opposing team’s passing game.
The Jayhawks are a top-10 offense in terms of EPA/Rush, but the team will face a stingy Colorado rush defense that is 31st in the country in Pro Football Focus grading. If the team isn’t able to get ahead of the sticks, it can lead to an emerging Buffaloes defensive line to tee off on Daniels, who has been playing better but is also prone to mistakes.
On the season, Daniels has 19 big-time throws to 16 turnover-worthy plays. Earlier in the season, those TWPs were turning into actual turnovers, but of late, he has been on the right side of some variance.
In Kansas’ winning streak, the team has also faced some limited passing games. The best the team has faced, Iowa State, scored 36 points and had an EPA/Dropback of 0.62, 95th percentile when compared to games last season, per GameonPaper.
The Jayhawks secondary is the strength of the defense, but it’s not a lockdown group, ranking outside the top 100 in explosive pass rate. I believe it’s a matter of time before the Buffaloes' passing game finds answers with the best pass-catching group in the Big 12, led by Heisman Trophy favorite Travis Hunter.
Kansas is rolling, but the Buffaloes have a ceiling that can’t be matched, and a plus matchup.
I’ll take the small (semi) road favorite.
Pittsburgh vs. Louisville Prediction and Pick
Pick: Louisville (-295)
Missouri vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Pick
Pick: Mississippi State (+225)
Army vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Pick
Pick: Notre Dame (-750)
As we saw when Navy stepped up in class to face Notre Dame, the Fighting Irish have a gear that the service academies don’t have.
Army, like Navy, has benefitted from an incredibly easy schedule that is arguably the easiest in all of college football this season. While the team is catching two touchdowns against Notre Dame, the market may not catch up to the actual quality of the Black Knights due to its fantastic raw statistical profile.
However, this will be the first time that Army plays a top 50 defense or a top 75 offense in terms of EPA/Play, which is incredibly impactful because Notre Dame is top 15 in both categories.
While the same concerns can be said for Notre Dame, who has beat up on an easy schedule since a Week 1 trip to College Station in which it beat Texas A&M, the team has a severe talent gap and also has already prepped for the triple option this season with its win against Navy.
Army’s defensive line has been suspect all season, ranking 72nd in EPA/Rush and outside the top 100 in tackles for loss. Notre Dame’s run game should be able to overpower the Black Knights on defense and win at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
I expect a humbling first loss for Army at Yankee Stadium and for Notre Dame to cover the two touchdown spread.
Boise State vs. Wyoming Prediction and Pick
Pick: Boise State (-2100)
Washington State vs. Oregon State Prediction and Pick
Pick: Washington State (-490)
Texas A&M vs. Auburn Prediction and Pick
Pick: Texas A&M (-144)
Texas A&M is playing for its College Football Playoff lives over the next two weeks, but can’t overlook a road game against Auburn before a massive game against Texas next week at home.
With that in mind, I think the Aggies get it done given its edge on the defensive line.
The Texas A&M defensive line should have a clear edge on the Auburn offensive line that may prove to be the difference as the Tigers can’t move the ball effectively and generate scoring chances.
While the Aggies offense will have its hands full with Auburn’s defense, I do believe the team has the edge in the special teams department and the more capable offensive line blocking for the dynamic Marcel Reed to get a road win.
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Prediction and Pick
Pick: Alabama (-580)
Vanderbilt vs. LSU Prediction and Pick
Pick: LSU (-285)
While Vanderbilt has been spoiling teams' seasons all year, and LSU doesn’t have much to play for, I do question if the Commodores have the skill level to go on the road and compete with the Bayou Bengals.
Diego Pavia has been nursing an injury for a few weeks and I wonder if the Commodores can move the ball effectively on a capable LSU defense, especially if Pavia can’t use his legs, which has been the biggest hole in the Tigers’ defense.
In Death Valley at night, I’ll side with LSU.
Cincinnati vs. Kansas State Prediction and Pick
Pick: Kansas State (-295)
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