It takes quite a while in a 162-game season for trends to emerge that you can trust will have staying power. We’re almost there in 2025. MVP contenders like Aaron Judge and Fernando Tatis Jr. are emerging. The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets are leading their divisions and look like World Series contenders. That’s not shocking to anyone.
But there have also been some unexpected developments. Tyler Mahle is tied for the lowest ERA in the American League. Seiya Suzuki leads the National League in isolated slugging. A couple of expected World Series contenders are below .500 and appear to have serious flaws. These are the sort of early-season oddities that are starting to take on meaning.
Every team contains at least one major surprise from the first month of the regular season. We’ve included them in the power rankings below. All of these surprises probably won’t last, so take them in while you can.
Tim Capurso handled the AL East and AL Central, Will Laws covered the NL East and NL Central, and Nick Selbe covered the AL West and NL West.
1. New York Mets (Opening Day: 2)
Biggest surprise: The strength of the pitching staff
The Mets lead the majors with a 2.68 ERA despite the pitching staff not being perceived as the club’s biggest strength heading into the season. Starting pitcher Tylor Megill is a major reason why. After never posting an ERA below 4.00 in his first four seasons, the 29-year-old ranks sixth with a 1.74 ERA while leaning heavier on his sinker this year and after remodeling his curveball and changeup over the offseason. Megill saw a major jump in his strikeout rate last season, going from 18.5% in 2023 to 27%, and that’s become even more pronounced (29.8%) in 2025.
2. Chicago Cubs (OD: 8)
Biggest surprise: MLB’s highest-scoring offense
The Cubs’ offense is rolling, scoring a league-high six runs per game, and with 46 home runs (third in MLB) and 44 stolen bases (first in MLB) is really fun to watch. Center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong has come into his own during his second full season and is on pace to collect at least 25 home runs and 50 stolen bases while making a strong play for the Platinum Glove (MLB-best seven outs above average). Kyle Tucker and Suzuki have been excellent, too, and honorable mention goes to veteran catcher Carson Kelly, who hasn’t slowed down one bit since hitting for the cycle on March 31, slashing .360/.507/.840 with seven homers and only six strikeouts in 50 at bats.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers (OD: 1)
Biggest surprise: Tommy Edman’s power stroke
The Dodgers boast an embarrassment of riches, but did anybody see Tommy Edman, Power Hitter coming? The super utility man has eight homers through the team's first 31 games, on pace to surpass his career high of 13 in a few weeks. The recipe for more power has been simple for the 29-year-old: more pulled fly balls, an approach that has produced a career-best 47.9% hard-hit rate. It's still early, but Edman could be the latest breakout on a team full of All-Stars.
4. Detroit Tigers (OD: 12)
Biggest surprise: SP Casey Mize
Mize, the top pick in the 2018 MLB draft, went from battling all spring for the Tigers’ fifth rotation spot to trailing only reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal in ERA among the club’s starters after the first month of the season. Some players are just late bloomers. And Mize, who is walking fewer batters than ever before, while limiting hard contact, seems to be figuring things out in his age-28 season.
5. New York Yankees (OD: 4)
Biggest surprise: RP Devin Williams
Ben Rice’s emergence and, to a degree, Trent Grisham’s, have been surprising to the masses but likely not to the Yankees. Williams’s struggles—and demotion from the closer role—have been surprising to both parties. Williams, a two-time All-Star, is a safe bet to figure this out. But the results so far—career-worst 20% strikeout rate, 16% walk rate and a 9.00 ERA—have been alarming.
6. San Diego Padres (OD: 15)
Biggest surprise: SP Nick Pivetta
Pivetta was a late addition to the Padres, signing a four-year, $55 million deal in mid-February, and clearly got himself ramped up quickly. Through six starts, the 32-year-old is 5–1 with a 1.78 ERA—not bad for a player with a career 4.76 ERA in more than 1,000 innings. His previous season low was a 4.04 mark in 2023.
7. Seattle Mariners (OD: 14)
Biggest surprise: DH Jorge Polanco
Mariners fans were plenty frustrated this offseason when the front office opted not to sign any impact hitters to boost an offense that held back the team's stellar pitching last year. The largest financial commitment the organization made was a one-year, $7 million deal to re-sign infielder Jorge Polanco. Through the first month, the bargain bin hunting has paid off in a big way: Seattle leads the AL with a 125 wRC+ and ranks third in runs scored, and Polanco has nine homers and 28 hits in 22 games.
Biggest surprise: CF Jung Hoo Lee
Because his debut season was cut short due to injury, it might be easy for fans to forget that Lee came to the Giants after signing a $113 million deal ahead of the 2024 campaign. He's showing why he earned such a lucrative payday with his play this season, as the center fielder is pacing San Francisco's lineup with an .893 OPS and 16 extra-base hits.
9. Philadelphia Phillies (OD: 3)
Biggest surprise: 3B Alec Bohm
After earning his first All-Star Game appearance last year, Bohm is off to an awful start in 2025. The 28-year-old is batting just .222 with a dreadful .252 on-base percentage, has yet to hit a home run and has just five extra-base hits in 123 plate appearances. If Bohm isn’t hitting for average or power, taking walks or playing good defense, he’s of no use to Philadelphia, who will likely seek a third baseman at the trade deadline if this continues.
10. Boston Red Sox (OD: 5)
Biggest surprise: How quickly young hitters have come of age
It’s no surprise that Kristian Campbell, MLB’s No. 6 ranked prospect, and Wilyer Abreu, one of 2024’s best rookies, are good at baseball. But even the most optimistic Red Sox fan couldn’t have foreseen . Both Campbell (15.4% walk rate) and Abreu (17.4%) have displayed patience beyond their years. Both rank among MLB’s top 15 in OPS and WAR and have powered baseball’s third-best run-scoring offense.
11. Arizona Diamondbacks (OD: 6)
Biggest surprise: SS Geraldo Perdomo
Though he's only 25, Perdomo had seemingly established his role over three full seasons as a glove-first, light-hitting shortstop. From 2022 to '24, Perdomo posted the fifth-lowest slugging percentage (.328) out of 230 qualified hitters. So it's quite a surprise that the switch-hitter has posted a .275/.387/.459 slash line with five homers and 25 RBIs through Arizona's first 31 games. Perdomo is running a 15.7% walk rate and a 9.7% strikeout rate, showcasing elite contact skills to significantly raise his offensive floor.
12. Cleveland Guardians (OD: 10)
Biggest surprise: RP Emmanuel Clase’s demotion
Clase allowed just five earned runs in 74 ⅓ innings in 2024, finishing third in the Cy Young Award voting. So far in ‘25, Clase has notched five saves but already yielded twice as many earned runs as last year and was (briefly) demoted from the closer role. Is it likely he turns things around? Yes. Is it surprising that he’s even in this position a month into the season? Also yes.
13. Houston Astros (OD: 11)
Biggest surprise: DH Yordan Alvarez’s power outage
From 2021 to '24, only Aaron Judge had a higher wRC+ than Alvarez's 165. Through the Astros' first 30 games, Alvarez is batting .219/.316/.354 with just three home runs. Houston's pitching has picked up the slack and kept the team above .500, but the Astros rank 22nd in runs and could sorely use a return to form from their most feared hitter.
Biggest surprise: SP Chris Sale's hittability
The Braves have somewhat recovered from their ugly 0–7 start by going 14–9 since then, but their rotation has still been shaky after it was one of the league’s best units last year. Atlanta needs reigning NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale (career-worst 4.84 ERA) to lead a staff that’s endured quite a bit of attrition through free agency and injuries since last fall. Sale’s trademark slider is still nasty, but opposing hitters are batting .380 and slugging .680 against his fastball, and batting .435 while slugging .739 against his changeup. That can’t last—and Sale’s league-high .383 BABIP indicates it won’t.
15. Milwaukee Brewers (OD: 16)
Biggest surprise: SP Chad Patrick
Chad Patrick has been a nice find for the .500 Brewers as they await the return of Brandon Woodruff to the rotation. The 26-year-old rookie, acquired from Oakland in November 2023 for infielder Abraham Toro, has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his six starts. Patrick has average stuff and shouldn’t be counted on to keep up his 2.45 ERA, but he could end up as another pitching development success story for Milwaukee.
16. Cincinnati Reds (OD: 20)
Biggest surprise: 3B Noelvi Marte
After ranking as one of the majors’ most unproductive players last season by accumulating -1.8 WAR in 66 games, former top prospect Noelvi Marte has seized the Reds’ third base job by slashing .315/.373/.593 in 15 games. It’s a small sample size, but the 23-year-old acquired from Seattle in the Luis Castillo trade has the potential to be a dynamic cornerstone for the Reds alongside Elly De La Cruz.
17. Kansas City Royals (OD: 19)
Biggest surprise: Struggles with RISP
Aside from its pitching staff, one of the strengths of last year’s 86-win Royals team was its lineup’s ability to hit with runners in scoring position. So far in 2025, that area has been a weakness. And surprisingly, star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (.541 OPS) and nine-time All-Star Salvador Perez (.576 OPS) have been the biggest offenders. These sorts of things tend to even out, though, and Kansas City has won nine of 10 to shake off its early slump.
18. Texas Rangers (OD: 13)
Biggest surprise: Offensive malaise
Through the season's first month, the Rangers rank 27th in runs scored. There's plenty of blame to go around—Jake Burger has underwhelmed after the team traded three prospects to acquire him this offseason, Marcus Semien has a 47 wRC+ and Joc Pederson had an 0-for-41 slump. Younger players like Wyatt Langford, Josh Smith and Josh Jung have helped pick up the slack, but the underperformers will need to step up for Texas to keep pace in the division race.
19. The Athletics (OD: 26)
Biggest surprise: SS Jacob Wilson
The success Wilson has been able to sustain with such an extreme contact-heavy approach—he has two walks and six strikeouts in 117 plate appearances—has certainly been a surprise. The rookie shortstop doesn't swing hard, he doesn't hit the ball in the air and he doesn't take pitches. Add it all up, and he has been a .325 hitter with a 127 wRC+, ranking eighth in the AL with 37 hits.
Biggest surprise: OF Kameron Misner
The Rays always seem to find a diamond in the rough, but outfielder Misner’s play is impressive even by Tampa Bay’s standards. The 27-year-old rookie outfielder labored in the minor leagues for five seasons before receiving his big-league chance with a Rays outfield plagued by injuries. He has taken the opportunity and run with it, ranking second on the team in OPS (.908) and batting average (.316).
21. Baltimore Orioles (OD: 9)
Biggest surprise: SP Charlie Morton’s steep decline
Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised that a quadragenarian starter in his 18th season is pitching poorly. But it’s odd that Morton, who owns an MLB-worst 9.45 ERA and 0–6 record, is struggling in this fashion, especially since he only began to figure things out on the mound in his thirties. The Orioles’ pitching staff has an AL-worst 5.47 ERA, and the elder statesman Morton—to his own surprise—has been its worst performer. The Orioles are likely regretting cheaping out on pitching needs during the offseason.
22. Minnesota Twins (OD: 17)
Biggest surprise: RP Danny Coulombe’s scoreless innings streak
One of Minnesota’s few free agent additions, Coulombe, in his second stint with the Twins, is pitching better than ever in his age-35 season. The southpaw has yet to allow a run in the first 11 ⅔ innings he’s worked. Mostly relying on cutters and sinkers, Coulombe has been a master at inducing weak contact and a key arm in the Twins’ solid bullpen.
23. St. Louis Cardinals (OD: 25)
Biggest surprise: RF Jordan Walker looking like a bust
There isn’t anything too terribly surprising about the Cardinals, a middling squad with few standout performances in either direction (Brendan Donovan has had a strong start, but it’s nothing extraordinary). Perhaps the most unexpected development is that former top prospect Jordan Walker still hasn’t figured it out and has gotten progressively worse with each passing season. The 23-year-old is slashing .210/.269/.290 amid a current 6-for-47 slump with one extra-base hit over his last 13 games. He’s running out of chances to prove himself in St. Louis.
24. Toronto Blue Jays (OD: 22)
Biggest surprise: Underachieving sluggers
In a year where league-wide batting average and runs per game are historically on the lower side, a struggling offense would seem to be an everyone-problem. Nevertheless, Toronto’s offensive output has been concerning. Toronto has scored the fifth-fewest runs in MLB. Underachievers like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Anthony Santander must start hitting like the back of their baseball cards for Toronto to avoid the AL East basement.
25. Washington Nationals (OD: 23)
Biggest surprise: SP MacKenzie Gore
Gore has taken the next step and is pitching like an ace for the Nationals, leading the majors with 59 strikeouts and 13 K/9 IP. He’s also nearly halved his walk rate, handing out fewer than two free passes per nine innings. With Gore dealing, James Wood battling for the league home run lead and CJ Abrams raking at career best rates across the board, Washington’s side of their Juan Soto trade is looking awfully good three years on.
26. Pittsburgh Pirates (OD: 24)
Biggest surprise: RF Bryan Reynolds
The Pirates are predictably once again in the NL Central cellar after a disappointingly inactive offseason. To make matters worse, cornerstone outfielder Bryan Reynolds has been below replacement level with career-worst marks across the board, notably a .238 batting average and 30.3% strikeout rate. And after ranking as one of MLB’s worst outfielder by outs above average in left field last season, the 30-year-old hasn’t looked better in right field. Pittsburgh needs Reynolds to play to his usual standards to have any chance of competing for a playoff spot.
27. Los Angeles Angels (OD: 27)
Biggest surprise: Lineup’s alarming lack of discipline
Is there anything really surprising about the Angels' suboptimal start to the year? The team has lost 13 of 16 following a 9–5 start, and has the second-worst run differential (-47) in the AL. Even if 2025 expectations were low, it's still somewhat of a surprise to see any club struggle to the degree Angels hitters have: they have the highest strikeout rate (26.6%) and lowest walk rate (6.6%) in the AL.
Biggest surprise: SP Sandy Alcantara
Everyone knew the Marlins were going to be bad, but the consensus was that their offense would be the root of their problems. Instead, the lineup has been surprisingly feisty (they rank 14th with 4.5 runs per game) while a fairly talented pitching staff has severely disappointed, posting a league-worst, almost unfathomable 6.59 ERA. The main culprit is 2022 NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara, who has allowed 24 runs in 26 innings with nearly as many walks (17) as strikeouts (19). It was widely assumed Alcantara would be shipped to a contender before the trade deadline, but no one will want him if he keeps pitching like that.
29. Chicago White Sox (OD: 29)
Biggest surprise: SP Shane Smith
Can the biggest surprise be that the White Sox have the worst record in MLB? No? Okay, then it must be righthander Shane Smith’s breakout. Smith, the top pick in the 2024 Rule 5 draft, ranks 11th in MLB in ERA through six starts. The 25-year-old’s changeup has developed into one of the best in baseball. Smith generates a 35.2% whiff rate with the pitch, which opponents have hit just .111 against.
30. Colorado Rockies (OD: 28)
Biggest surprise: LF Jordan Beck
Let’s end on something positive for the Rockies, who claimed their first winning streak of 2025 with their second straight victory Thursday. After looking completely overmatched in his 55-game cup of coffee last year, outfielder Jordan Beck has looked much improved to start 2025. The 24-year-old is hitting .267/.348/.600 through his first 21 games, with five homers and four stolen bases. It looks like it's going to be a long summer in Denver, but the development of young players like Beck could be a silver lining that better days are ahead.
